As gambling is as old as human existence, so too are the attempts to beat the game. Players have used cheating schemes and have also used more or less legitimate systems and strategies for winning from the first moment that cards were dealt or dice were rolled. Although the basic truth is that an honest random game cannot be beaten, systems can indeed be effective. At times they can produce wins that are beyond normal expectations. But more often systems can be used to protect a player from excessive losses or to maximize playing time when the player is seeking game play for entertainment.
The most effective winning systems are tied to games in which skill is a greater factor than luck in determining winners. Applications of systematic play can produce results in live poker games, at blackjack tables, and with sports and horse-race betting. The most important part of systematic play is having a full knowledge of the odds in the game; for instance, knowing the likelihood that particular cards will be dealt at a particular moment. In a player-banked game such as poker, the systematic player will also be cognizant of his or her bankroll and the bankroll of opponents. Systematic skills at poker also involve being able to “read” the other players; that is, finding “tells” or mannerisms that might reflect the strength of their hands. Another essential skill at poker or at other games involving calculations and interpretations of situations is the ability to have a clear head; for instance, the skill to remain fully sober during play. In blackjack, good playing strategies keep the house edge down to one or two percentage points. Card-counting strategies, however, if properly executed, can give the player a positive return, as discussed in Edward Thorpe’s book, Beat the Dealer.
Sports bettors can gain an edge over the casino by carefully studying records of teams and game situation histories. The sport bettor can use information to assess the likelihood that one team will win a game or the likelihood that it will win by a certain margin. The sports bettor has an advantage over the casino in that the casino oddsmakers are not assessing the results they feel will occur in the game but rather are assessing how the betting public will play the game. For instance, the casino knows that players will favor teams such as Michigan and Notre Dame in their betting. Given this situation, the casino will add greater handicaps to these teams. When the oddsmakers think Notre Dame will beat Northwestern by eleven points, they put the point spread at fifteen points, knowing that half of the public will bet on each side of the game at that level. The true student of the game with no emotional attachment to either team will see that Northwestern has a definite advantage in the betting situation. That player is getting an extra four points by betting on Northwestern. As long as the betting is balanced on both sides, the casino does not care who wins or loses. The casino is hurt only if the betting is heavily on one side. In such cases, it will move the point line to seek an adjustment. If the casino move the line too much—more than two or three points – the smart, skillful bettors will bet when the spread is low on one team and when it is high on the other team and hope they can win on both sides.
In horse-race betting, most systems are also based upon having full information and records about a horse’s pedigree and prior experiences in similar situations (dry track, muddy track, long race course, short race course). Again, the odds that will be given on a particular horse are balanced, according to how other bettors are making wagers on the race. If one bettor gets better information or can better analyze information, he or she can make money on the wagers. One system assumes that the bettors on first-place horses – the win bets = are knowledgeable. Therefore, the system player analyzes betting on the board (at the track or at an offtrack betting parlor). He or she sees the possible return on the favorite. It might be two for one – a $4 payout for a $2 wager. The next best horses may pay off $10, $12, or $14. The bettor then looks at the bets to show – that is, that the horse will finish in one of the first three places. This is a different pool. The other bettors might overlook the favorite here, and that horse’s return could be $3 compared to $4, $5, and $6 on the other horses. This is proportionally much more favorable to the favorite. Under the system, a bettor placing his or her money on the favorite to finish in one of the top three places can gain a very good edge on the others and even on the track, which takes away up to 20 percent from the pool of bets.
In games involving skillful choices, systems can provide an edge, as most of these games – even when house banked (as sports betting is) – pit one player’s skill against that of other players. In luck games such as roulette, baccarat, or craps, however, the player is foolish to believe he or she can sustain an edge over the house with any system. Of course, with luck, any system can provide short-term winnings, but so too can luck do that for a nonsystem player. Systems can help with managing the player’s money, but every system first directs the player toward finding the best bets on the table. For instance, system players at craps would avoid all but the pass/come bets combined with the odds bets. Blackjack betters would avoid insurance bets, and roulette bettors would seek out wheels with only one zero and would not bet on a five-number combination at a double-zero wheel. The optimum bet would be one offering en prison on a single-zero wheel, preferably in England, where tipping is prohibited.
Bettors playing total chance games have pursued several systems with some frequency over the centuries wherever the games have been played. One very simple system is called flat betting. Under this system the bettor simply bets the same amount every time. At games such as blackjack, the player would double down and split when it was advantageous to do so. At a roulette game, such players would bet on even-money choices such as red and black. Which way they bet would make no difference. They could bet pass or no-pass on a craps table whether they thought the table was hot or cold, but it would make no difference. Using this system or strategy, the player can be assured that over the long run, he or she will lose at the rate of the house percentage. As the house edge is 5 percent or less, the system can sustain a long time of play. A streak of luck can provide the player with a win. And the one big advantage all players have, but reluctantly use, is that they can walk away from the game at any time. The casinos really cannot do that.
The most popular system, one that has broken many players but never a casino, is called the Martingale Progressive System. In this system the player raises bets by doubling them after losses. If the first bet is $1 on red and it is a loss, the player next bets $2 on red. A player who wins goes back to betting $1 dollar the next time. If he or she loses again, the next bet is $4. Another loss and he or she bets $8, then $16, then $32 if there are five losses in a row. The player is now putting $32 at risk. A player who wins is $1 ahead. A player who loses is risking in turn $64 and then $128, all in order to get ahead by $1. This system is very much dependent upon the nerve of the gambler. Will he or she really be willing to put out $64 in a bet after losing six in a row, when he or she started out with a $1 bet in hopes of winning $1? But even more than nerve, there is the question of house limits. The limits usually involve a spread of 100 times or less. In this case, if the player has seven losses, he or she is forced to bet $128 to get the $1 win. A $1 table will probably have an upper limit of $100 for bets, so the system can no longer be used. The laws of probability and streaks indicate that with thousands of rolls of dice or wheels, there will be streaks occurring with some regularity. Wheels turn up red seven or eight times every night. The same is true for odds and evens and for high and low numbers. The streak can kill the system player, wiping out his or her bankroll very quickly. If, on the other hand, the player is betting with the streak, he or she wins only $1 each time. In a streak of seven, the player loses $131 if he or she is on the wrong side but wins $7 on the right side.
Cognizant of these facts and the fact that wheels and dice do indeed follow streaks, some of the Martingale Progressive System players will watch a wheel (or dice table) several minutes and wait for a streak to develop. Then depending upon their disposition, after five or six reds in a row, they will start their system by playing black, or if they sense a wheel bias, by continuing to bet on red. All of this is a futile exercise, assuming that the casino does monitor its wheel against biases, because the wheel does not remember what it has rolled the previous five times, ten times, or ten thousand times. The casinos with roulette and baccarat games encourage these Martingale System players by furnishing them with pencils and paper so they can track the numbers on the wheels. They also publish books of numbers for the past month, or past year, to try to get players to practice their systems. Evidently, the casinos are not afraid of the Martingale. Nor are they afraid of Great Martingale systems that find the bettor tripling bets after losses.
A cancellation system is offered as a sure winner. The bettor writes down three numbers, 1, 2, and 3. He or she now bets $4, the total of the first and third digits (1+3). A player who wins cancels out the 1 and 3 and bets $2. A winner cancels out the 2 and starts over. If he or she loses, he or she adds the $2 loss to the 2 and now bets $4. A player who wins crosses off 4 from the total and starts over. A player who loses adds the 4 to the 1, 2, and 3 and bets 5 (4 + 1). Wins bring the player back to the 1, 2, 3. Although under this system one can show a profit with an even number of wins and losses, streaks can be as deadly as with the Martingale.
Another more simple system suggests that the player should go with the flow, raising bets one unit whenever there is a win and lowering them one unit (or keeping the original bet amount) when there is a loss. Under this method, over the span of play the player should be able to keep his or her losses within the house percentages.
Casinos as an entertainment experience offer play at house games. The best systems cannot change that fact. Good money management demands the ability to set limits. The player should determine his or her budget before play begins and be willing to walk away from the tables when the budget is spent. If the player wishes to sustain play over a period of time for enjoyment of the games, the initial bet should not exceed 1 percent of his or her bankroll. The player should also consider a winning limit. If with a $100 bankroll the player achieves wins of $20, he or she should remove this amount from the bankroll and play it no more during that session. A player who experiences a streak of more than five or six bets should pause and consider going to another table or game.
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