Football
Football did not carry much interest among bettors until the National Football League gained television contracts and displayed its special kind of action for the public. A critical event was the climax of the championship playoffs of 1957, as the Baltimore Colts defeated the New York Giants in a sudden-death overtime game viewed by the largest television audience for a sports event up to the time. The game marked a critical point at which national interest in football exceeded interest in baseball, a game that did not translate well to the public over television, as it had too many breaks in action.
Football sports betting received an extra boost as a new professional league began operations in the 1960s and then merged with the National Football League, bringing teams and games to each major city in the United States.
The Point Spread
The growing interest in football was tied to betting on the games. Betting increased considerably among bookies when a handicap system of point spreads was developed. Prior to the use of point spreads for football wagering, the bookies only offered odds on winners and losers of games. As many games were predictable, odds became very long. Players realized that they had little chance to win with the underdog, but at the same time, the bookies did not want to accept bets of sure-thing favorite teams, and they were reluctant to accept the possibilities of an underdog winning with odds of twenty to one or more. Therefore, many games simply were not available for the betting public. There is a dispute over just who invented the point spread. A Chicago stock market adviser, Charles McNeil, was credited by some for inventing the spread in the 1930s; two other bookies, Ed Curd of Lexington, Kentucky, and Bill Hecht of Minneapolis, are also cited for creating the spread decades later.
Bookies and the few legal sports books in operation in the 1950s and 1960s loved the spread for football and certain other games, as it greatly reduced their risks. Bookies do not want risks. They are businesspeople who want stability in their investments. The essential feature of the point spread was a guaranteed profit for the bookies – if the books could be balanced. Points are set for games with the goal of having an equal (nearly equal) amount of money bet on either side.
The point spread is called the line. The point spread refers to the betting handicap or extra point given to those persons making wagers on the underdog in a contest. Those betting on the favorite to win must subtract points from their team before the contest begins. The point spread is used most often for bets on basketball or football games. As an example, the New York Giants may be a seven-point underdog against the Green Bay Packers. Thus the line is Green Bay minus seven. Those betting on Green Bay will lost their bets unless Green Bay wins by more than seven points. Those betting on the New York Giants will win unless the Giants lose by more than seven points. The bet is a tie (called a push) if Green Bay wins by exactly seven points (Thompson 1997).
In 1969 the New York Jets were double digit underdogs against the Baltimore Colts in the Superbowl football game. The point spread was as high as eighteen points. Yet New York, under the guiding leadership of quarterback Joe Namath, defeated the Colts sixteen to seven. Although some considered that the point setters failed miserably on that game, they did anything but fail at all. Money books were balanced, and the bookies won their transaction fees. Although players bet on one side of the line, they must put up $11 in order to win $10. This means that if the books are perfectly balanced, with $11,000 bet on one side, and $11,000 bet on another, the bookie pays back $21,000 to the winning bettor, and keeps $1,000 out of the $22,000 that has been bet – for a 4.55% advantage over the bettors.
In actuality, this theoretical advantage is seldom realized. Bettors do not line up evenly on either side of the point spread, and some bettors have knowledge about the games superior to that of the point setters, taking advantage of the spread numbers. The bookies often find that they have to adjust lines in order to get more even betting on each side. In certain cases, a line may move two or three points, resulting in a situation called “middling,” whereby bettors on both sides—early bettors on one side, later bettors on the other side – can be winners. This happened with betting on the Superbowl in 1989. The three-point line, with San Francisco favored over Cincinnati, was moved to five or more points, as the bettors clearly favored the San Francisco 49ers (they were not only a California team – that is, near Las Vegas – but also they had won the Superbowl twice in the previous seven years). The game finished with a four-point San Francisco victory. Early San Francisco bettors won; later Cincinnati bettors won. Many of the bettors won both ways. The bettor gets the point spread that is listed at the time the bet is made, unlike the pari-mutuel situation in which odds are based upon the cumulative bets of the players.
Then there is the case in which the point setters do what some might consider their “job” perfectly. In the 1997 Superbowl game between Green Bay and New England, the Green Bay Packers were favored by fourteen points. The point setters were on target; they were perfect. The Packers won with a fourteen-point margin. The bookies and legal sportsbooks won exactly 0 percent on the game. They had to give all the money bet back to the bettors. The bets were a tie, a “wash.” Because ties on point spreads are bad for the sports books, there is a tendency to use half points in spreads, although these are moved when betting behavior demands that the points be changed. Also, bookies realize that certain spreads will lead to ties more often than others will. More games end with a three-point victory than any other specific point margin. Moving points up or down around the three-point margin is also dangerous because of the “middling” factor.
The Structure of Football Bets
The standard bet on football results has a player wagering that a favored team will either win by so many points or, conversely, that an underdog team will either win or will not lose by more than a determined number of points. If a game is considered to be an even match, no points are given either way. Such an even-match bet, with no points either way, is called a “pick-’em” by bettors. If the point spread is expressed as a full number, and the favorite team wins by that many points (or an even match ends in a tie), the bet is considered a tie (or “wash”), and the money wagered is returned to the player. There is no bet.
There are many betting opportunities other than a straight-up bet on which team will win and whether it will win by so many points. A very popular bet made on professional football games and many college games as well is the over-under. Here the point setters indicate a score that is simply the total number of points scored in the game. Bettors wager $11 to win $10 that the total score of the game will be more or less than the set number. There are also teaser bets that may be used either with one game or usually with bets on several teams. The bettor is given extra points for a game in exchange for having the odds on the bet changed against him.
Parlay bets are combination bets whereby the bettor wagers that several games (with point spreads) will be won or lost. For instance, on a two-team parlay, a bettor wagering $10 will win $26 (for a payback of $36) if both picks are correct. At even odds, the player should receive 3 to 1 for such a bet, or a return of $40. This means that the house edge on the bet is theoretically 10% – again assuming that bets on all sides of the parlay action are even amounts of money. A three-team parlay pays 6 to 1, and the even odds of such a parlay would be 7 to 1. The theoretical edge in favor of the sports book would be 12.5%. There are two kinds of parlay bets: ones made based upon the point spreads of the moment, and others made on a card where the point spread is fixed until the game is played. The latter type of cards may have a theoretical edge as high as 25% or more. For a three-bet parlay, cards usually payoff at a 5 to 1 rate. Sometimes cards allow tie bets to be winners; other times they are figured as “no-bets”; some cards may treat ties as losers.
There is also a wide array of proposition bets that are usually reserved for special occasions. Bettors may wager on many situations for the Superbowl game each year. For instance, the bettor is allowed to wager on which team will win the coin toss, have the most passes completed, score first; on how the first score will be made (touchdown, field goal, etc.); on which player will score first, how many fumbles there will be in the game, which team will lead at halftime, and many other situations. In the 1986 Superbowl, a Las Vegas casino offered a wager on whether Chicago Bear William “the Refrigerator” Perry – a 300-plus-pound offensive lineman would score a touchdown in the game against New England. He had been used as a back on gimmick plays during the season. The betting started with odds at thirteen to one but quickly came down as the betting public wagered that Perry would score a touchdown. Late in the game, which had become a rout (Chicago won forty-six to ten), coach Mike Ditka called Perry’s number. He lined up in the backfield and was given the ball. He scored a Superbowl touchdown.
There are possibilities for odds betting for some football games, although the sports books put the players at a considerable disadvantage for any games where the point spread betting exceeds seven points. One can wager on the “sure thing” but only at considerable risk. For instance, on an even, no-points, “pick-’em” game, players betting either side advance $11 in order to win $10. With a three-point spread, those wagering on the favorite bet $15 to win $10, and those wagering on the underdog wager $10 to win $13. For a 7.5 point game, those betting on the favorite might be asked to wager $40 to win $10, while those betting on the underdog would wager $10 to win $30. The theoretical house edge thereby moves from 4.55 percent for the even game, to 8 percent for the three-point spread game, to 20 percent for the 7.5-point game.
The biggest bet on a football game was made by maverick casino owner Bob Stupak, the owner of Vegas World and the creator of and an initial investor in the Stratosphere Tower. In 1995 he bet more than $1 million on a Superbowl game. He wagered $1,100,000 to win $1,000,000. And he won. It was great publicity all the way around. The Little Caesar’s Casino and Sports Book basked in the glow of publicity as it happily paid the $2,100,000 check (for winnings and original bet) to Stupak. He basked in the light of publicity, as he was seen as the ultimate “macho-man.” He put it all on the line for his team, and he had won.
One newspaperman was rather suspicious about the deal, as it seemed too good to be true for both the casino and the bettor. The newspaperman made an official inquiry of the Nevada Gaming Commission as to the veracity of the bet. The commission confirmed that Stupak had bet $1,100,000 on the game and that his win was legitimate. The commission reported no fact other than it was a legitimate bet. Sometime later, news media personnel uncovered “the rest of the story.” Stupak may have bet on both teams. He may have been a $100,000 loser for the day – but it was worth it to gain the desired publicity, if he had won $1 million on one bet and lost $1.1 million on the other. The Nevada Gaming Commission has absolutely no obligation to report information on losing bets—indeed, that information is rightfully considered to be very private. Publicly, that information certainly would harm the industry, as Las Vegas seeks to portray itself as a place where “winners” play. There was nothing illegal about playing both sides of a sports bet.